Investments, Consumption, Public Budget, Foreighn Trade, Population and Employment

Investments

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Growth of fixed gross domestic investments at 2982 fixed prices according to the Second Plan, should increase from 2262 billion rials in the first plan year to over 3000 billions by the final year of the plan. The total amount of gross domestic investments during this period is to amount to 14064 billion rials:

SectorGrowth Rate(%)Investment (Rials)
Agriculture7.2932.3
Industries & Mines5.21,146.5
Electricity and Water6.61,287.5
Oil and Gas7.5819.9
Construction6.9338.9
Transportation10.52,188.8
Communications9.4313.3
Housing4.34,505.2
Other Services4.82,531.6
Services(Total)6.09.538.8
 6.214,063.9

Investments in 1996 are planned as follows:

Food and Medicinal IndustriesUS$ 14 m
Textile, Leather Ware and Clothing IndustriesUS$ 164 m
Chemical IndustriesUS$ 91 m
Non-Metal Mineral IndustriesUS$ 36 m
Electric and Electronic IndustriesUS$ 6 m
Metal Foundry IndustriesUS$ 63 m
Automotive and MotorsUS$ 41 m
OthersUS$ 317 m
TotalUS$ 954 m
HandicraftsUS$ 14 m
Grand TotalUS$ 773 m

Consumption

Private per capita consumption at 1982 fixed prices should mgrow from 151000 to 164000 rials per year during the Plan period.

Public Budget

Total public revenues during the plan period has been predicted to grow by 15.2% amounting to 237311 billion rials. Of this amount 50% comes from oil revenues, 26% from taxes and other duties, and 24% from other sources.

Oil revenues are estimated to grow by 8.3%, tax revenues by 18.2% and others by 29.7%.

Budget expenditures during the same period are expected to grow by about 15% per annum from about 30,000 billion rials in 1494 to over 60,88C) billions in 1999. Total amount of expen-ditures duringthe period isexpected tobe about 238,187 billion rials of which 5bCro will be provided by the current budgets and 44% by development budgets.

According to estimated revenues and expenditures, the budget shsuld show a deficit of 875 billion rials during the plan period, which should be compensated by unspent budgets which are each year returned by the various departments, to the treasury.

Money and Credit

The monetary basis and the liquidity should grow by
12.50% because of expected growths of the government and the banking system’s debts to the Central Bank. Therefore, considering the objective of growth of GDP and the growth of liquidity, the cost of living is expected to rise by an average of 12,5%.

Foreign Trade

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Revenues from oil exports, during the Plan period, are estimated at a total of 72.6 billion dollars and revenues from non-oil exports at 27.5 billions. During this period Iran must pay 8.2 billion dollars towards its foreign debts. It also requires about 91.9 billion dollars for imports during the same period.

Population and Employment

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By the end of the Plan period, that is about the beginning of the 21st century, Iran’s population is estimated to reach about 6,900,000 of whom 16,232,000 will be economically active. The number of economically active people should grow by about two millions during the Plan period, in the following sectors:

SectorGrowth Rate (%)Increase by 3999
(x1000)
Agriculture1.2214
Industry3.9838
Water, Electricity and Gas5.244
Transportation4.7229
Other Services2.2695
Total2.72020